Official labor data show no sign that AI is replacing registered nurses. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that registered nurse employment will grow six percent between 2025 and 2035 from a base of 3,465,400 jobs, and the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) counted 354,824 registered nurses in Canada in 2025. The changes AI has produced so far sit around nursing work, mainly documentation and monitoring support, and regulators keep the nurse responsible for the result.
Key takeaways
- BLS projects about 194,700 new registered nurse jobs in the United States from 2025 to 2035, plus about 180,800 openings a year when retirements and job changes are counted.
- Canada's registered nurse supply grew 4.7 percent in 2025, after 5.2 percent in 2024, according to CIHI.
- BLS expects AI-linked job losses in clerical work, such as office and administrative support, not in direct patient care.
- Ontario's nursing regulator allows AI documentation tools but holds the nurse accountable for every entry, and it requires client consent when AI records an encounter.
- Exposure to AI is not the same as displacement: a task can be automated while the job around it grows.
What U.S. employment projections say about nurses
The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook entry for registered nurses reports 3,465,400 jobs in 2025 and a median annual wage of USD 97,550. It projects growth of six percent from 2025 to 2035, faster than the average for all occupations, with about 194,700 added jobs. Most of the roughly 180,800 yearly openings come from nurses who retire or move to other occupations, not from new positions. The BLS entry on registered nurses describes the work as assessing patients, administering medicines and treatments, operating and monitoring medical equipment, and teaching patients and families. It does not mention artificial intelligence.
The broader BLS projections released on August 27, 2026 point the same way. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to grow 8.0 percent and healthcare support occupations 13.3 percent, and nurse practitioners are projected to grow 41.0 percent, the fastest rate of any detailed occupation.
What Canadian registers show
CIHI reports that Canada had 354,824 registered nurses in 2025, of whom 238,162 worked in direct patient care. Total supply grew 4.7 percent in 2025, a slower rate than the 5.2 percent recorded in 2024, and the share of nurses educated outside Canada rose from 14.4 percent to 16.8 percent. The direct-care figure leaves out Prince Edward Island, Manitoba, Alberta, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut, so it understates the national total.
These numbers describe supply, not demand, and neither CIHI nor BLS says how many positions go unfilled because of shortages. They do show a profession that kept growing in the years since generative AI tools became widely available. A decline in nurse numbers would be the first thing to look for if substitution were underway, and no such decline appears in either country's data.
Where AI does reduce jobs, according to BLS
The same BLS release expects AI and other automation to lower demand for several office and administrative support occupations, which are projected to shrink 4.0 percent and lose 752,100 jobs between 2025 and 2035, the largest loss of any major group. In its earlier 2024 to 2034 cycle, BLS listed medical transcriptionists among AI-related results, with a projected decline of 4.9 percent, or about 2,200 jobs. Speech recognition can now draft text that a person once typed.
That pattern separates exposure from displacement. Writing a visit note is a task inside a hospital job, and automating it changes how a nurse spends a shift. Replacing the nurse requires software to assess a patient, act on the assessment, and answer for the outcome. None of the sources checked for this article reports a system doing all three in routine hospital care.
Nursing tasks and who stays accountable
The table below is an illustrative classification built from the BLS duty list and the Ontario regulator's documentation rules. It is not a measured share of nursing time.
| Task in a registered nurse's work | Where software can assist | Who remains answerable |
|---|---|---|
| Assessing a patient's condition | Alerts or risk scores that prompt a second look | The nurse, who weighs the alert against the bedside picture |
| Administering medicines and treatments | Dose checks and record prompts | The nurse, who gives the treatment and confirms the patient and dose |
| Operating and monitoring equipment | Automated monitoring of patient readings | The nurse, who responds when readings and the patient disagree |
| Recording what happened | AI drafting of notes from a conversation | The nurse, who checks and owns the entry |
| Teaching patients and families | Written material that a person reviews | The nurse, who adapts the message to the person in front of them |
What nursing regulators and associations say
The College of Nurses of Ontario states that nurses may use AI tools to support clinical documentation and remain accountable for everything entered in the health record, including AI-assisted content. Its guidance on documentation and artificial intelligence adds three conditions: the nurse reviews AI-generated text against their own assessment, uses only tools approved by the employer, and obtains informed consent from the client when AI records, transcribes, or documents any part of an encounter.
On July 21, 2026, the Canadian Nurses Association asked provincial and territorial premiers to set standards for AI in health care covering safety, equity, transparency, clinical validation, and human oversight, and to involve nurses in how tools are introduced and assessed. The request treats nurses as participants in AI adoption. It makes no claim either way about replacement, and long-run forecasts rest on thin evidence, so projections are best read as dated estimates.
Reading claims about AI and nursing jobs
- Does the claim name a task (note-taking, monitoring) or a whole job?
- Is the figure a projection, a survey of intentions, or a count of jobs that actually changed?
- Does the source separate clerical roles from direct-care roles?
- Does it state the year and the country, given that BLS and CIHI use different definitions and years?
- Who is accountable if the tool is wrong?
FAQ
Will AI replace nurses in the next decade?
The projections checked for this article point to growth, not replacement. BLS expects six percent growth for registered nurses through 2035, and CIHI shows continued growth in supply. Projections can be revised, and neither agency forecasts a specific technology outcome.
Which healthcare jobs does BLS link to AI-related declines?
Its 2024 to 2034 results list medical transcriptionists, with a projected decline of 4.9 percent. Clerical and administrative groups are the main area where BLS expects automation to reduce demand.
Can a Canadian nurse use an AI note-taking tool?
In Ontario, yes, under conditions set by the College of Nurses of Ontario: employer-approved tools, review of the output, and client consent. Rules differ by province, so a nurse elsewhere should check the local regulator.
Does less paperwork mean fewer nurses?
Not by itself. Time saved on documentation can go to patient care, and the data above show nurse numbers still rising. Whether hospitals reduce staffing is a management and funding decision that the sources checked here do not measure.
Related reading
- Whether AI will replace most jobs
- Can AI replace scientists
- AI and job loss among human workers
- AI and the future of teaching
More in AI and Society.
Last verified: October 2026
Sources
- Registered nurses, Occupational Outlook Handbook, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026
- Employment Projections: 2025-2035 Summary, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 27, 2026
- Artificial intelligence, information technology, and employment, 2024-34, The Economics Daily, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 16, 2026
- Registered nurses, Canadian Institute for Health Information, 2025 data
- Documentation and artificial intelligence, practice support FAQ, College of Nurses of Ontario, 2026
- CNA urges Premiers to act on nursing solutions for better care and stronger health systems, Canadian Nurses Association, July 21, 2026