No source can name the cryptocurrency with the maximum returns, and the evidence on how ordinary buyers fared is mixed and depends on the date it was collected. A Bank for International Settlements (BIS) bulletin dated February 20, 2023 found that a majority of crypto app users in nearly all economies lost money on bitcoin between August 2015 and December 2022, while the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) found in a survey fielded in 2023 that only 39 percent of Canadian owners held crypto worth more than they had put in. This page names, rates, and recommends no token.
Key takeaways
- BIS Bulletin 69 reports that a majority of crypto app users in nearly all economies made losses on their bitcoin holdings over August 2015 to December 2022.
- OSC survey waves show how a snapshot shifts: 46 percent of owners were ahead in 2022 and 39 percent in 2023, while the wave fielded from December 18, 2025 to January 22, 2026 reports that the majority of owners would have expected profits if they sold at that moment.
- In the 2025 OSC wave, 26 percent of owners gave "a speculative investment/gamble" as a reason for buying, and 33 percent of past or current owners reported at least moderate regret.
- Among owners who bought through a centralized trading platform, 15 percent reported a financial loss from scams, fraud, or hacking.
- A loss of 50 percent takes a gain of 100 percent to recover, which is why a single "maximum return" figure hides most of the risk.
Why "maximum returns" cannot be answered
A return is a result measured between two dates. The asset with the largest return between two dates in the past is known only after the fact, and the answer changes with the dates chosen. Asking for the one with the maximum return in advance asks for a forecast, and no reviewed source in this article provides one. Generative AI tools can write fluent answers to the question, but fluent text is not evidence, and a model trained on past prices has no special access to future ones.
What can be documented is how groups of buyers actually did and how they described their own choices. Two public datasets help: the BIS bulletin on retail losses and the OSC's repeated Canadian surveys.
What the BIS found about retail users
BIS Bulletin 69, "Crypto shocks and retail losses," by Giulio Cornelli, Sebastian Doerr, Jon Frost, and Leonardo Gambacorta, uses data on major crypto trading platforms covering August 2015 to December 2022. Its key takeaways state that after the Terra/Luna collapse and the FTX bankruptcy, trading rose, with large and sophisticated investors selling and smaller retail investors buying. As a result, the authors conclude, a majority of crypto app users in nearly all economies made losses on their bitcoin holdings.
The bulletin also notes that the 2022 turmoil had little visible effect on broader financial conditions outside crypto. The authors stress that the views are theirs and not necessarily those of the BIS. The data end in December 2022, so the bulletin says nothing about later months, and it covers bitcoin holdings on app platforms, not every token or every way of holding one.
What Ontario's survey waves show
The OSC has run a national crypto survey of about 2,360 Canadians aged 18 and over three times, with Ipsos oversampling crypto owners to reach at least 500. Fieldwork for the second wave ran from May 16 to June 7, 2023, and for the third from December 18, 2025 to January 22, 2026; results are accurate to within 2.5 percentage points for the full sample and are wider for subgroups.
The 2023 report says fewer owners held portfolios worth more than they invested: 39 percent, compared with 46 percent in 2022. In that wave 28 percent named a speculative investment or gamble as a reason for buying. The third wave, released July 28, 2026, found ownership of 25 percent, and its report states that the majority of owners would have expected profits if they sold when they completed the survey. The questions in the two waves are worded differently, so the two statements should not be set side by side as one trend. They do show that the same group of people, asked in different months, describes very different outcomes. A snapshot reflects the day it was taken.
The same report records that 15 percent of owners who bought through a centralized trading platform had a financial loss through fraud, scams, or hacking (10 percent from a scam or fraud, 9 percent from hacking, with some in both groups), 59 percent of that group had no significant issue, and 33 percent of past or current owners reported at least moderate regret, similar to 34 percent in 2023.
The arithmetic of losses and recovery
The table is arithmetic, not a forecast, and applies to any asset. It shows the gain needed to return to the starting value after a loss.
| Loss from the starting value | Gain needed to get back to it |
|---|---|
| 10 percent | 11.1 percent |
| 25 percent | 33.3 percent |
| 50 percent | 100 percent |
| 75 percent | 300 percent |
| 90 percent | 900 percent |
A headline that reports only the best gain in a period leaves out the path. An owner who held through a 50 percent fall and a later doubling is level, not ahead. For that reason, claims of "maximum returns" are worth reading with three questions in mind: between which dates, measured in which currency, and before or after fees and taxes.
Checks that do not depend on predicting anything
- Is the seller or platform registered with the provincial, territorial, or state securities regulator? In the 2025 OSC wave, half of owners reported checking, up from 38 percent in 2023.
- Does the pitch promise returns, or describe them as certain? A promise is a reason to stop and verify.
- Are the figures dated, and do they state the starting and ending prices used?
- Is the source an independent regulator or researcher, or the seller of the product?
This article is general information about published surveys and arithmetic. It is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and it does not suggest buying, holding, or selling any asset. Questions about a personal situation belong with a registered professional, and doubts about a specific offer belong with the securities regulator in the reader's province, territory, or state.
FAQ
Is there a cryptocurrency with guaranteed returns?
No source reviewed here supports one. The surveys above show owners reporting both gains and losses depending on timing, and a seller who promises a return is making a claim to verify, not a fact.
Did most crypto buyers lose money?
According to the BIS bulletin, a majority of crypto app users in nearly all economies lost money on bitcoin over August 2015 to December 2022. That finding covers one asset on app platforms and ends in 2022.
Can AI pick the best-performing crypto?
No published source reviewed here shows a method that does so reliably. A model can summarize past data, but summarizing the past does not guarantee anything about later periods.
How many Canadians own crypto?
The OSC's survey fielded from December 18, 2025 to January 22, 2026 reports 25 percent ownership, up from 10 percent in the 2023 wave.
Related reading
- how AI and crypto differ
- risks that come with cryptocurrency
- documented concerns about Bitcoin
- what FBI data say about AI and crypto fraud
More in AI in finance.
Last verified: October 2026
Sources
- Crypto shocks and retail losses, Cornelli, Doerr, Frost, Gambacorta, BIS Bulletin No 69, February 20, 2023
- Crypto Asset Survey, wave 3, Ontario Securities Commission, July 28, 2026
- Crypto Asset Survey 2023, Final Report, Ontario Securities Commission, November 2023
- OSC finds growing awareness, ownership and optimism toward crypto assets, Ontario Securities Commission news release, July 28, 2026