No official source projects that AI will replace teachers. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects little or no change in employment for both high school teachers and kindergarten and elementary school teachers from 2025 to 2035, and UNESCO's 2024 competency framework for teachers states that AI tools should complement, not replace, the roles of teachers. Those are projections and guidance, not proof about the long run, and neither BLS profile mentions AI by name.
Key takeaways
- BLS projects 0 percent change in high school teacher employment from 2025 to 2035 (1,087,500 jobs in 2025) and 0 percent for kindergarten and elementary teachers (1,530,500 jobs).
- BLS expects about 99,400 openings a year for kindergarten and elementary teachers, mostly from workers who retire or change occupations.
- Canada's Job Bank rates the 2024 to 2033 risk of labor shortage for kindergarten teachers as moderate.
- UNESCO's teacher AI framework, launched in September 2024, has five competency areas and treats AI as a complement to teachers.
- A flat projection says what statisticians expect from current trends. It does not rule out change from new tools.
What the US employment projections say
BLS publishes ten-year employment projections in its Occupational Outlook Handbook. For high school teachers, the agency reports a May 2025 median wage of USD 72,040, about 1,087,500 jobs in 2025, and a projected change of zero percent through 2035, a loss of about 2,500 jobs. For kindergarten and elementary school teachers it reports a median of USD 63,820, about 1,530,500 jobs, zero percent change, and a loss of about 6,100 jobs. For comparison, BLS projects 3 percent growth across all occupations.
The same elementary profile projects about 99,400 openings each year, mostly to replace workers who move to other occupations or leave the labor force, such as through retirement. A flat headcount therefore still means many hires. These figures came from pages BLS last modified on August 27, 2026.
What the Canadian data show
Canada's Job Bank, run by the federal government, gives outlooks by occupation. Its page for kindergarten teachers lists 337,300 workers in 2023, with 26 percent aged 50 or older and a median retirement age of 61.0. It rates the national risk of labor shortage from 2024 to 2033 as moderate. Provincial ratings for the next three years range from moderate to very good. Job Bank does not tie these ratings to AI, so the data speak to supply and retirement, not to automation.
What UNESCO says about teachers and AI
UNESCO released two AI competency frameworks in September 2024, one for students and one for teachers. The teacher framework has five areas: a human-centered mindset, the ethics of AI, AI foundations and applications, AI pedagogy, and AI for professional development. UNESCO describes it as a reference for national training programs and says AI tools should complement, not replace, the roles and responsibilities of teachers.
The need for training is part of a larger staffing picture. The UN's report on Sustainable Development Goal 4 says 18 to 21 percent of teachers worldwide in 2024 did not meet their country's minimum qualification standards, depending on the education level. The same goal asks for a substantial increase in the supply of qualified teachers by 2030.
Reading the evidence by task
The table below is an illustrative example of how to separate teaching work into parts when judging a claim about replacement. The right-hand column states what the sources above do or do not say.
| Part of teaching work | What the sources say |
|---|---|
| Delivering lessons and skills | BLS describes teachers as teaching academic lessons and skills that students need for college or work |
| Staying current with technology | BLS says teachers must be comfortable with using and learning new technology |
| Training for AI | UNESCO's framework lists ethics, pedagogy, and professional development as competencies |
| Employment trend | BLS projects flat headcounts to 2035, with steady openings from retirements |
| Long-run effect of AI tools | Not stated in the BLS profiles or Job Bank pages |
What the projections cannot show
Projections extend current trends and published staffing models. They were not built to measure a technology that changes quickly, and a school district's budget, class size rules, and student enrollment affect hiring more directly than any single tool. If enrollment falls, headcounts can drop with or without AI. Readers who want a view on a specific school should look at the district's staffing plan and union agreement, which set what teachers must do and who may do it. This article is general information, not career advice.
FAQ
Will AI replace teachers by 2035?
No source reviewed here projects that. BLS expects flat employment for both groups of teachers to 2035, and it does not model AI as a cause of change.
Do teachers need to learn AI?
UNESCO's framework describes AI competencies for teachers, and BLS notes that teachers must be comfortable with new technology. Neither is a legal requirement in itself. Training rules differ by province, state, and district.
Why would employment stay flat if enrollment and technology change?
A projection weighs many factors at once, including enrollment trends and retirements. The elementary profile's 99,400 yearly openings show that turnover creates jobs even when the total number does not grow.
Is there a teacher shortage?
Evidence differs by region and level. Job Bank rates the Canadian kindergarten teacher shortage risk as moderate, and the UN reports that many teachers worldwide do not meet minimum qualification standards. A local education department publishes the figures for a given area.
Related reading
- What OpenAI offers to schools and students
- The same replacement question asked about scientists
- Whether AI will replace most jobs
- How AI differs from machine learning
More in AI in education.
Last verified: October 2026
Sources
- High School Teachers, Occupational Outlook Handbook, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, modified August 27, 2026
- Kindergarten and Elementary School Teachers, Occupational Outlook Handbook, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, modified August 27, 2026
- Kindergarten Teacher outlook page, Job Bank, Government of Canada, 2026
- What you need to know about UNESCO's new AI competency frameworks for students and teachers, UNESCO, September 3, 2024
- Goal 4: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, progress page, 2026